The subsurface heat (red contours) is building up in the western part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is certainly capable of triggering an El Niño event this summer. We just need a few westerly wind bursts in the spring season to initiate a downwelling Kelvin wave.

Many statistical and dynamical models continue to indicate a transition to El Niño this summer, with the latest IRI CPC forecast suggesting greater than 50% chance of El Niño this summer. The state of ENSO would be crucial in modulating #monsoon2023 in #India.

Is North India witnessing an unusual cold wave? I share my opinion with @boomlive_in.

https://www.boomlive.in/explainers/north-india-cold-wave-western-disturbances-sub-zero-temperatures-20735

How will western disturbances affect the weather in North India over the next couple of days? Will the rainfall deficit continue in the plains? I share my views with @down2earthindia.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/it-s-been-a-dry-winter-in-the-hills-plains-of-north-india-here-s-why-87198

Will #Mumbai-MMR see a dust storm over the next couple of days? I share my views with @HTMumbai.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/a-year-later-dust-storms-expected-again-101674155593624.html