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Models suggest that this Bay of Bengal low-pressure system could intensity into a tropical cyclone early next week. It's expected to start producing substantial rainfall over southern states of India as it approaches (perhaps even crosses) the coast of India around 9 December.
A weak MJO event is likely to trigger a weak westerly wind burst, spinning up twin low-pressure systems across the equator and over the eastern Indian Ocean.
The counterpart over the Bay of Bengal will produce heavy rainfall over the Andaman & Nicobar islands during 5-7 Dec.
Will we see a fourth year of La Niña in 2023? How likely is El Niño?
I share my views with @down2earthindia in this article.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/amp/el-nino-year-or-neural-phase-likely-in-2023-transition-may-lead-to-monsoon-deficit-experts-86215
The latest CPC IRI ENSO forecast indicates that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is heading towards a transition in spring 2023, with a good possibility of an ENSO neutral or El Niño event. Warm subsurface water is accumulating once again in the western Pacific. All eyes on the WWBs!
2I share my views on the connection between the southwest monsoon and the formation of tarballs, which affect the west coast of #India.
Tarballs are clumps of oil mixed with sand, coating beaches of India's west coast from April-August. Researchers say, tarballs result from oil spills or fuel discharge from ships. 🖋️ @Manjula_VNair
@CSIRNIOGoa @CCFIndia_ @NLSIUofficial @akshaydeoras https://india.mongabay.com/2022/11/tarballs-dot-indias-west-coast-annually-indicating-continued-oil-spills-ship-fuel-discharge/